Qualification permutations - Updated version!

As you know, we have to visit the Mestalla Stadium in Valencia - scene of our downfall in a previous campaign - and Ajax have to play Roma. Here are the different permutations:

1. Arsenal win, Ajax win
Ajax win the group, Arsenal are 2nd

2. Arsenal win, Ajax-Roma draw
Arsenal win the group, Ajax are 2nd

3. Arsenal win, Roma win
This is a bit complicated. Arsenal win the group, Roma advance if they win
by a better margin than 2-1. If Roma win by one goal, but 3-2 or greater,
Ajax advance.

4. Arsenal-Valencia draw, Ajax win
Ajax win the group, Arsenal are 2nd

5. Arsenal-Valencia draw, Roma-Ajax draw
Ajax win the group, Arsenal are 2nd

6. Arsenal-Valencia draw, Roma win
Arsenal win the group, Roma are 2nd

7. Valencia win, Ajax win
Ajax win the group, Valencia are 2nd

8. Valencia win, Ajax-Roma draw
Valencia win the group, Ajax are 2nd

9. Valencia win, Roma win
Valencia win the group, Arsenal are 2nd. I'm quite relieved about this permutation. We can advance even if we lose in Spain.

Should we have to resort to "tiebreakers", here are the criteria - in order - as laid down by UEFA:

1. Higher number of points in the matches between the teams in question
2. Superior goal difference from matches between the teams in question
3. Higher number of goals scored away from home in matches between the teams in question
4. Goal difference from all group matches
5. Higher number of goals scored
6. UEFA coefficient (club + national association) based on past five seasons.

Roll on next week when we'll all be put out of our misery one way or another!

(And thanks to Dartos for doing the maths!)